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Eesti Rooma Klubi avatud aprillikoosolek 29. aprillil 2021 võtab ekspertide ringis üles teema “Tulevikuenergeetikast tsivilisatsiooni jätkusuutlikkuse vaates“.
Alusettekande tegi Kaupo Vipp. Klubi ettekandjate ja kutsutud ekspertidega tahame anda laiema pildi energeetilistele lahendustele ja näidata, et see ei ole pelgalt Eesti (või mistahes riigi/ühenduse) asi.

Kaks huvitavat klippi arutlusele tuleval teemal Paul Tammertilt:

2021. a Presidendi noore teadlase auhinna saanud Alar Konist ütleb:

  • energiaturg ei taga süsteemi töökindlust ja ei garanteeri ka parimat hinda. Selle tõestuseks on Texase näide (näide 1) ja  väljavõtted sellest juhtumist. Kas me tahame ja oskame sellest õppida, oleks üks võimalik küsimus.
  • Saksamaa näide (näide 2) on elust enesest tõestuseks, et kõiki energialiike on võimalik koos kasutada – öösel päikest pole, tuulele ei saa ka alati loota – siis on töös teised tootmisüksused.
  • Insenerina pean oluliseks energiasüsteemide töökindlust, ma ei eelista üht energiatootmist teisele, vaid vaatan süsteemi tervikuna. See ei tee reeglina lahendusi odavamaks. Kasutan võimalust ja jagan infot, läbi väikese koondi, mille olen oma vaatenurgast koostanud.

Esimese näitena toodud Texase energiakriis on üks võimalus teiste vigadest õppida. Vt ERCOT – Electric Reliability Council of Texas*. Mõned väljavõtted sellest (tõlked, kogu austuse juures emakeele vastu, ei ole siinkohal ühise kokkuleppena vajalikud):

  • The generation outages were causing frequency to fall — as much as 0.5 hertz in a half-hour. “Then we started to see lots of generation come off,” Magness said.
  • Operators removed 10 gigawatts of demand from 1:30 a.m. until 2:30 a.m., essentially cutting power to 2 million homes in one fell swoop.
  • The power cuts worked — at least in so far as Ercot managed to keep demand below rapidly falling supply.
  • What’s more, frequency continued to fluctuate through the early hours of the morning, potentially causing even more power plants to trip, according to Ercot market participants. The Sandy Creek coal plant near Waco was one them, falling offline at 1:56 a.m. in tandem with the frequency dip, according to data from the plant operator.
  • Ercot, however, maintains that the frequency stayed above the level at which plants would trip.
  • And as blackouts spread across the state, power was cut not only to homes and businesses but to the compressor stations that power natural gas pipelines — further cutting off the flow of supplies to power plants.
  • Power supplies became so scarce that what were supposed to be “rolling” blackouts ended up lasting for days at a time, leaving millions of Texans without lights, heat and, eventually without water. Even the Ercot control center lost water, and had to bring in portable toilets for its staff.
  • By Friday, when Ercot declared that the emergency had ended, 14.4 million people still lacked reliable access to public water supplies, and the crisis had already cost the state $50 billion in damages, according to Accuweather. Meanwhile, some generators made a windfall as energy prices soared to $9,000 a megawatt-hour during the crisis. In all, generators have earned more than $44.6 billion in electricity sales alone this year — more than 2018-2020 combined, according to Wood Mackenzie. Those earnings don’t take into account any hedges that may have been in place.

Teine näide Euroopast: 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/green-shift-brings-blackout-risk-to-world-s-biggest-power-grid

  • As biting cold caused power demand to surge across western Europe on January 8, the continent’s electricity network came close to a massive blackout.
  • Europe’s grid, which is usually connected from Lisbon to Istanbul, split into two as the northwest and southeast regions struggled to keep the same frequency. The problem originated in Croatia and led to the equivalent of 200,000 households losing power across Europe. Supply to industrial sites was cut in France and Italy.
  • While this event hasn’t been linked to a surge in renewable power, as Europe replaces big coal and nuclear stations with thousands of smaller wind and solar units – just as sectors electrify to reduce emissions – incidents like this will become more frequent.
  • “It is not a question about if a blackout in some European regions will happen, it is only a question of when it will happen,” said Stefan Zach, head of communication at Austrian utility EVN AG. “A blackout might happen even in countries with high standards in electricity grid security.”
  • Transmission grids need to stay at a frequency of 50 hertz to operate smoothly and any deviations can damage equipment that’s connected. Had the frequency swings not been reduced within minutes, it could have caused damage across the entire European high voltage network, potentially causing blackouts for millions.
  • A fault at a substation that caused overloading on other parts of Croatia’s grid has been identified as the cause of the issue, network operators concluded Tuesday.
  • “The problem isn’t posed by growing green electricity directly but by shrinking conventional capacity,” said Eglantine Kuenle, chief electricity systems modeler at the EWI Institute of Energy Economics at Cologne University. “The upshot is a gap in secure power generation and grid balancing that must be fixed.”
  • Europe hasn’t come this close to a major blackout since 2006 when more than 15 million households were plunged into darkness for hours, although there was another narrow escape when the frequency dropped dangerously low at the start of 2019. Europe’s grid operators have put in automatic responses like splitting the network and triggering standby generation or demand reduction.
  • Spinning turbines of thermal plants connected to the grid create kinetic energy called inertia which helps keep the network at the right frequency. This spinning can’t be created by wind turbines or solar panels and policy makers need to find ways to incentivize other forms of energy storage or flexible output.
  • Germany is the biggest producer of green electricity in Europe. The nation is culling a quarter of coal and nuclear capacity next year, a gap it will need to plug. Instead of building a huge fleet of batteries, Germany plans to rely more on more its neighbors, importing power along huge cables.
  • The event shows that problems in one nation will rapidly cascade between states as they become more reliant on their neighbors for power, said Wolfgang Kroeger, a professor at the ETH university’s Risk Center in Zurich.

Sageli kinnitatakse, et avatud elektriturg tagab parima lahenduse ja soodsaima hinna.

Kokkuvõte Texasest. https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-electric-bills-were-28-billion-higher-under-deregulation-11614162780?reflink=desktopwebshare_linkedin

  • Texas’s deregulated electricity market, which was supposed to provide reliable power at a lower price, left millions in the dark last week. For two decades, its customers have paid more for electricity than state residents who are served by traditional utilities, a Wall Street Journal analysis has found.
  • Nearly 20 years ago, Texas shifted from using full-service regulated utilities to generate power and deliver it to consumers. The state deregulated power generation, creating the system that failed last week. And it required nearly 60% of consumers to buy their electricity from one of many retail power companies, rather than a local utility.
  • Those deregulated Texas residential consumers paid $28 billion more for their power since 2004 than they would have paid at the rates charged to the customers of the state’s traditional utilities, according to the Journal’s analysis of data from the federal Energy Information Administration.

Alari kokkuvõte:

Ei saa lootma jääda turule ja ülekandeliinidele naabritega, kui eesmärgiks on tagada varustuskindlus ja energiajulgeolek igal ajal. Nende toodud näidete põhjal saab ümber lükata väite, et viimane kWh jääb tarbimata, kuna see on liiga kallis – ei jää. (https://nypost.com/2021/02/19/homeowners-hit-with-massive-electric-bills-amid-texas-winter-storm/ hind MWh eest kerkis $50 – $9000). Kainestuseks vaadake lehte: Electricity Production | Energy-Charts (energy-charts.info) 

Kui tuult pole, siis töötavad Saksamaal söe ja gaasijaamad, mis on vanad ja ilmselt peagi suletakse.

Veel uudisnupukesi ja mõttepunkte:

Mis on meil veel Eestis arvesse võtmata, kuid olulise tähtsusega ja kaalumist vääriv?

https://ifrf.net/combustion-industry-news/valcoe-cost-comparison-method-may-favour-hydrocarbon-fired-power-generation/

Eesti keeles: “loodava koondväärtusega kohandatud ajaväärtust arvestav elektritootmise kogukulu“

The new measure, the Value-Adjusted Levelized Cost of Electricity, a modification of the conventional Levelized Cost of Electricity, now includes three additional considerations of value. One is the electricity price that a plant might earn from the market it operates in – fossil-fired plants may take advantage of peak demand to increase generation and therefore revenue. The second is value through a plant’s flexibility and its ability to provide ‘system services’ such as frequency regulation or reserve power. The third is value from the proportion of a plant’s capacity that would be available on demand. While the second and third seem to overlap somewhat, all three considerations will usually be favourable for fossil-fired power plants.

Energiasõltuvuse kohta üks joonis, mis pärit siit: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/t2020_rd320/default/map?lang=en

Energiasõltuvuse kohta üks joonis, mis pärit siit: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/t2020_rd320/default/map?lang=en

Eesti energiasõltuvus aastal 2019 oli 4,832% ja Soome 42,092%. EU-28 keskmine väärtus 2013-2021 on 57,795%. Eks igaüks teeb sellest omad järeldused.

Taustaks: Taavi Veskimägi kirjutas hiljuti oma blogis niihttps://www.taaviveskimagi.ee/2021/03/texase-oppetunnid-eesti-energiavarustuskindlusele/:

Texase õppetunnid Eesti energiavarustuskindlusele

Einari Kisel, kunagine energeetika asekantsler kirjutas vastu kommentaari:

Seekord saan suuresti nõustuda toodud õppetundide osas. Lisaksin aga omalt poolt veel kolm aspekti mis ulatuvad väljapoole süsteemi tehnilist toimimist: 1. Tarbijad polnud valmis väljalülitamisteks ega ka ülikõrgeteks elektriarveteks. Kuni 16000 dollarini ulatuvad kuuarved olid isegi teksaslaste jaoks liig mis liig. Ka Eesti kontekstis peaks tarbijateni viima teadmise olla valmis nii brownout-ideks kui ülikõrgeteks elektriarveteks. Mis on omakorda toonud lauale arutelud elektrituru avamise tagasipööramisest. 2. Mitmed pankrotiohus elektrimüüjad on otsustanud oma äri maha müüa, mille tulemusel on elektrimüügi turg tugevalt kontsentreerumas. Jällegi tarbijatele mitte väga hea uudis. 3. Texase “eleringi” juhid ja nõukogu on tänaseks lahkunud/lahti lastud

On mille üle mõelda.

* – Texas: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-02-20/texas-blackout-how-the-electrical-grid-failed